Kerem Can

For many years, the Mediterranean was seen as a region with a relatively familiar climatic character: hot, dry summers, milder winters, periodic heavy rainfall and a way of life shaped by the sea.

Today, it is not only the temperature that is changing.

What is changing more fundamentally is the way risk behaves.

Scientific studies identify the Mediterranean Basin as one of the regions particularly exposed to the effects of climate change. The IPCC has highlighted increasing temperatures, drought, water stress, coastal flooding, erosion and wildfire risk across the region. MedECC research has also shown that the Mediterranean is warming faster than the global average.

But it would be a mistake to interpret this change simply as “hotter summers”.

The Mediterranean is becoming hotter, drier and, at the same time, more variable.

From a risk perspective, this is where the real issue begins.

Risk No Longer Acts Alone

In the past, when assessing the risk of a building, fire, water damage and storm were often considered separately.

Under changing climatic conditions, these risks are becoming increasingly interconnected.

Soil that has gone through a prolonged dry period can become hard and less able to absorb water. If intense rainfall then arrives within a short period, surface runoff can increase significantly.

The same location may move from drought conditions to localised flooding within a matter of hours.

Extended periods of heat can dry vegetation and increase wildfire risk. Land damaged by fire can later become more vulnerable to erosion and rapid surface water movement when heavy rain arrives.

This is increasingly described through the concept of compound risk.

The issue is no longer one isolated event.

It is the combination of events that follow one another, interact with one another, or amplify one another.

Recent MedECC work also reflects this approach, examining water, energy, ecosystems and climate risk as interconnected rather than isolated systems.

Small Islands May Feel the Change Earlier

On islands such as Cyprus, where land area is limited, coastal settlement is intensive and seasonal water balance is already important, these changes can become particularly visible.

This is not simply a meteorological issue.

Buildings, roads, drainage systems, retaining walls, swimming pools, roofs, façades and infrastructure all exist within the same physical environment.

In western Kyrenia, for example, densely built slopes sit within a relatively short distance of the coastline. During intense rainfall, the movement of water between higher ground and developed areas becomes an important risk factor.

In the İskele region, rapid development combined with proximity to the coast creates a different form of exposure.

In Nicosia, there is no direct coastal risk, yet heat, sudden heavy rainfall, urban surfaces and drainage capacity produce another combination of risks.

Within the same island, the physical risk profile can change significantly over only a few dozen kilometres.

This means that future risk assessment cannot simply refer to “a house in Cyprus” or “a business in Cyprus”.

Where it is located is becoming increasingly important.

How Rain Falls Matters More Than the Annual Total

Climate discussions often focus on annual rainfall figures.

For a building or neighbourhood, however, another question may be more important:

How quickly does the rain fall?

The consequences of a month’s rainfall falling within several hours are very different from the same volume being distributed over several days.

Urbanisation can add another dimension.

Hard surfaces, reduced soil absorption and changes to natural water channels can alter how rainfall moves through an area.

For this reason, future assessments will need to consider not only how much rain falls, but also its intensity, duration and the physical characteristics of the area where it falls.

The Sea Is Also a Quiet Risk Factor

In Cyprus, the sea is usually associated with quality of life.

For coastal buildings, however, it is also a continuous physical influence.

Salt, humidity, wind and strong sunlight can gradually affect metal components, outdoor equipment, façades, coatings and other structural elements.

This does not always appear as a sudden major loss.

Sometimes risk develops slowly.

A connection weakens.

An external surface deteriorates faster.

A metal component corrodes.

Later, when strong wind or heavy rainfall arrives, the weakness that has been developing for years becomes visible.

This is one of the defining characteristics of climate-related risk:

The day damage occurs may not be the day the risk began to develop.

Repair Cost Is the Other Half of the Risk

Alongside physical change, there is also an economic dimension.

The scale of a loss is not determined only by what has been damaged.

Material availability, labour, imported components, energy costs, exchange rates and repair time all influence the final cost.

The economic consequence of the same physical damage today is therefore not necessarily the same as it was ten years ago.

Over the coming years, the insurance sector will need to pay increasing attention not only to the frequency of losses, but also to the cost of reinstatement.

The distinction between a property's market value and the cost of rebuilding it will therefore become increasingly significant.

The Insurance Discussion Should Come Later

There is an important distinction here.

The climate discussion should not begin with insurance.

It should begin with understanding the physical reality.

Where does the water flow?

Which façade is exposed to the strongest wind?

What has changed around the building?

What did the surrounding land look like several years ago?

Has nearby construction altered the natural movement of water?

How close is the property to the coast?

Are the external materials suitable for local salt and humidity conditions?

Without answering these questions, discussing only the insurance policy provides an incomplete picture.

Insurance is not the risk itself.

Insurance is one of the financial tools used to manage the consequences of risk.

A New Question for North Cyprus

For North Cyprus, the key question for the years ahead is no longer whether climate change will happen.

Change is already being observed.

The more important question is:

How well prepared are today’s buildings, infrastructure and risk assessment methods for tomorrow’s Mediterranean conditions?

The answer will be different in Kyrenia, İskele and Nicosia.

It may even differ significantly between neighbourhoods within the same town.

This is why many sectors, including insurance, will increasingly need to assess risk at a much more detailed geographic level.

Thinking only at island level may no longer be sufficient.

Understanding the region, the neighbourhood, the road and, in some cases, the immediate surroundings of a single property will become increasingly important.

A New Era of Risk

The Mediterranean is not disappearing.

Nor is it becoming uninhabitable.

But its traditional patterns are changing.

Longer periods of heat, water stress, wildfire exposure, coastal pressure and more variable rainfall are increasingly interacting within the same geography.

Cyprus is not outside this transformation.

Its small scale, concentration of coastal development, rapid construction and position in the Eastern Mediterranean mean that the physical consequences of these changes may become particularly visible.

The most important change over the coming years may therefore not be found only in temperature records.

It may be found in the meaning of risk itself.

The Mediterranean is not simply becoming hotter.

It is entering a new era of risk.

Kerem Can
General Manager
CAN Sigorta